Poll: Trump Win Possible; Supporters and Undecideds Unhappy with Nation’s Direction
A post-convention follow up survey of millennials, conducted through over 100 mobile apps by MobOpinions/VoterLabs, shows the recent political conventions of the Republican and Democratic parties had little effect on those born between 1981 and 1998.
While Hillary Clinton continues to lead among likely voting millennials 37% to 29%, with 21% still saying they are undecided. The numbers translate to a statistically insignificant 2 point net bounce over Donald Trump when compared to pre-convention survey numbers.
An Opening for Trump
When asked ‘if America’s best days are behind it or ahead of it’, respondents were closely split, with 38% seeing America’s best days ahead, 33% behind and 29% saying they are unsure.
However, likely undecided voters aren’t so sure about the future of the country – 38% of these voters believe America may never live up to it’s past, a margin of 12 points over the 26% who see the future as bright.
The only other voter segments who hold a similar negative view of the future were Trump supporters and white voters. Of supporters of Donald Trump, only 27% see the future as bright. A whopping 49% of Trump supporters and a full 46% of white voters think America’s best days have passed.
“Trump seems to tapping into people who have given up on the American dream and future of America. It suggests a certain gloominess that might explain why they would be comfortable with a political outsider, with little relevant experience, to shake up a system they feel is broken,” said pollster Mitchell Barak of MOBOPINIONS.
Though when forced to choose between only the Democratic and Republican candidates, Mrs. Clinton beats Mr. Trump 60% to 40%, previously undecideds unsure of the future flock to Trump by an 8 point margin.
If Mr. Trump can win those undecideds who share his supporter’s view of the future, he can bring the race to a dead heat among likely voting millennials.
“At this point in the campaign, Clinton has a clear advantage with 18-35 year olds, but Donald Trump can make great gains if he can connect with disaffected millennials and get them out to the polls.”, said Walter Kawecki of VoterLabs.
The survey results suggest that focusing on their respective experience and vision for the nation may be the best way for candidates to sway millennial voters, with over 80% millennial voters preferring this approach to attacks on their opponents.
The survey was conducted on iOS and Android devices in-app, within 101 different mobile applications, leveraging MOBOPINIONS network of respondents and proprietary technology.
The representative sample consisted of 601 millennials from across the United States with a 3.5% margin of error. In order to measure to true effect of the conventions, the survey ran the week following the close of Republican and Democratic National Conventions to allow for post-convention bounce equalization.
VoterLabs’ Mobile Identity Sync and voter scoring methodology, powered by VoterLabs’ patented technology, were used to identify likely voters among survey respondents.
Clinton leads Trump 37% to 29% among millennial likely voters
Clinton: 37% Trump: 29% Gary Johnson: 10% Jill Stein: 4% Undecided: 21%
Only +2% difference in favor of Clinton over Trump vs. Pre-convention numbers
Are America’s best days behind or ahead of it?
All likely voters:
Ahead: 35% Behind: 33% Unsure: 29%
Ahead: 27% Behind: 49% Unsure: 24%
Undecided likely voters:
Ahead: 26% Behind: 38% Unsure: 36%
Undecided Likely Voting Millennial by Race / Ethnicity
African American: 25%
Pacific Islander: 14%
Native American / Alaskan: 7%
MOBOPINIONS mobile survey research platform reaches over 100 million monthly respondents across the United States, through thousands of apps on smartphones & tablets. The proprietary platform enables survey researchers and brands to gain opinions and insight from mobile audiences using the apps data to gather location, demographics and device specific information, including the Device Ad ID, which has been used with Facebook, Google and other digital advertiser to reach users displaying similar behavioural attributes.
About VoterLabs, Inc.
VoterLabs, Inc. works with political, businesses and enterprise clients to better understand supporters, customers and audiences. By leveraging voter and consumer data, psychographic profiling and predicative analytics, VoterLabs helps clients realize the full potential of data. Customers include political organizations at all levels, including the 2016 presidential. Products include VoterLabs Text-to-Donate with Mobile ID Sync and TargetMatch self-service data enrichment platforms, audience microtargeting, and custom enriched voter files and consumer data.
Walter Kawecki, VoterLabs
Mitchell Barak, MOBOPINIONS