Ideally, a long-term forecast of the value of cryptocurrency should be based on a fundamental analysis. But even if the prediction is made by an experienced specialist, its accuracy never reaches 100%. An accuracy of 70-80% is considered as a high forecasting indicator. In this regard, the cryptocurrency market is the exact opposite of the traditional one. The cost of cryptocurrency mainly depends on its demand, and this parameter can be easily manipulated.
The specifics of the cryptocurrency market makes it an ideal field for speculation and manipulation. Due to the low capitalization, almost any player who owns a large number of coins can swing or collapse the price of cryptocurrencies and turn the market dynamics in the direction they need.
Often, jumps in the market rate of cryptocurrency are associated with the actions of whales or pumpers, so it is very difficult to predict them.
In addition, the cryptocurrency market is still reacting painfully to external circumstances. For example, restrictions on cryptocurrency transactions in China, taxation of ICOs in the United States, and even a ban on advertising cryptocurrencies on Facebook sharply hit the price of most coins, thereby breaking predicted trends.
Making a crypto predictions, the specialist takes the cryptocurrency price dynamics for the entire time of its existence, analyzes its current indicators, studies the news background and looks for patterns that have already worked before. Based on this information, he predicts how the value of cryptocurrency will change over a certain period of time.
However, the situation may change at any time. For example, cryptocurrency will be swept by a pump wave, developers will be caught fraudulent, the top cryptocurrency exchange will crash, or something else could happen that could not have been foreseen.
The presence of a huge number of difficultly predicted factors is the main reason why most of the crypto predictions simply do not work.
There is another point, because of which most forecasts (even from public figures and eminent experts) cannot be trusted. It is about dividing the information space into two opposite camps – supporters and opponents of cryptocurrency.
Without a doubt, a reliable forecast is the key to an effective cryptocurrency earning strategy. Knowing how the price of an asset will change, you can clearly plan when, how many and which coins to buy, which ones to use for trading at short positions, and which ones are best left for later.
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